How Decision Support is Produced Through Intelligence Analysis

Today, given the increased accessibility that is directly proportional to the sheer volume of open sources and information available, it is nearly impossible to avoid being overwhelmed by the data we face. Every day, every minute, information flows onto us from hundreds of different sources, and we must adapt to this flow by consciously or unconsciously using dozens of data points when making decisions throughout the day.

So, how can we take a stand against such an influx and make rational decisions amidst all this chaos? The answer is quite clear; analytical thinking.

Analysis is the art of simplifying complexity and, from that simplicity, drawing the necessary inference to meet a requirement. In shorter, more general terms, it is the skill of solving complex problems by breaking them down into their constituent parts. This skill plays a guiding role in both corporate strategies and individual decision-making processes. Through analysis, the disorganization stemming from complexity is resolved, allowing us to adopt a target-oriented perspective.

Conducting analysis is not merely about making sense of information; it is about grounding decisions on a solid foundation. By following a proper analytical process, we save time, gain a strategic advantage, and achieve rational outcomes. Indeed, decision-making begins with analysis.

If you have not conducted an analysis, or if you lack a high-quality analysis, the likelihood of having made a rational decision that will lead you to your objectives is quite low. Because analysis is what transports you to a rational and secure conclusion, one that is free from assumptions and possesses a data-driven approach. Likewise, analysis is the key step in transforming data into action.

Among the most common errors made during analysis, assumptions are foremost. Neglecting to test the validity of your assumptions against reality lays the foundation for biased decisions. Furthermore, getting preoccupied with excessive detail can, at times, cause you to lose sight of the main picture. To prevent this, you must be ableto recognize your own biases and operate within a system; the capability required for this working method is analytical thinking.

Although I have referred to it as an "analytical thinking capability," it is not strictly a talent, but rather a habit. My personal view is that analytical thinking capability is not innate, but rather something one can acquire by developing the "muscles" in their brain, just as they develop all their other muscles. Therefore, in my opinion, analytical thinking capability is a skill much like flexibility.

If you want to use your analytical thinking capability to produce a successful intelligence analysis, the path you should follow can be briefly described as follows. 

First, focus on the objective:

Before starting an analysis, you must ask yourself what question you are seeking to answer. An analysis process that lacks an objective and is unclear about what it is trying to find is dysfunctional. While doing this, you must be objective, and most importantly, you must work on learning to ask questions. There is a saying we have in intelligence, which I also repeat constantly in my classes:

“The decision-maker never knows their intelligence requirement. They just pose a general question. A good intelligence officer processes that question according to the decision-maker’s needs and focus, and formulates the intelligence question.”

This question is the very step that will lead us to our objective. Only after defining this objective can we establish an intelligence item's depreciation time [time-sensitivity], the collection assets, the essential elements of information, and the priority information and intelligence requirements—in short, the collection plan. 1. MOM (Motive, Opportunity, Means)

Foremost among the most common errors made during analysis is accepting assumptions as fact. In the analysis process, questioning the accuracy of every piece of information and testing its source is a critical step. When you do not validate your assumptions based on reality, you adopt misguided strategies and make erroneous decisions.

Separating fact from assumption is one of the cornerstones of informed decision-making. To achieve this, you can follow these steps:

Test Every Piece of Information: Ensure the reliability of a piece of information. Asking the question, "How do I know this information is true?" is a simple method.

Evaluate the Source: The reputation and impartiality of the source from which the information originates are critically important. Information from sources you are unsure of makes you vulnerable to manipulation. Test Every Piece of Information: Ensure the reliability of a piece of information. Asking the question, "How do I know this information is true?" is a simple method.

Note Down Assumptions: Define your assumptions in writing, and identify and collect the additional data needed to validate them.

After following these steps, what you need to do is use a series of structured analytic techniques to eliminate assumptions. Among the methods you can perform quickly and easily, two analytic techniques are highly effective: “Key Assumptions Check” and “Quality of Information Check.”

Furthermore, focusing on excessive details can prevent you from seeing the main picture. While details are significant, they must be assessed within a context that supports the overall strategy. This helps you see not only the small picture, but the big picture as well. Recognizing your own biases and freeing yourself from them is the key to a more objective analysis process.

Use Structured Analytic Techniques

Structured analytic techniques (SATs) are one of the most effective ways to make sense of complex information. Although the techniques developed by Richard Heuer often come to mind when SATs are mentioned, you do not have to use only his techniques. In other words, if your job is not intelligence, you do not need to learn the books “Psychology of Intelligence” or “Art of Intelligence Analysis” as if studying for a course. In this regard, you can examine various red teaming training manuals. They contain techniques and methods of use that will be useful for your work in a much simpler format.

Using these techniques not only systematizes your analysis but also accelerates the process and increases its accuracy. For this reason, their use is strongly recommended for conducting a successful analysis process. Some simple techniques I can recommend are:

Beyond these methods, there are dozens of other analysis techniques you can use. The use of any of these techniques will make your analysis more disciplined and enable you to formulate your decisions on more rational planes.

In any decision or problem, examining the situation not only from our own viewpoint but also from different perspectives makes the decision-making process much stronger. Furthermore, should better options emerge, you must possess the flexibility to pivot to an alternative decision. This precise stage is, in fact, the least observed behavior among those in decision-making positions.

Imagine you are in a meeting where a company is formulating its annual strategic plan. All department managers are present, presided over by the company's CEO. Primarily, as a consequence of the vertical hierarchy, the department managers will largely be unable to express their opinions freely. At the end of the day, the CEO will make a decision based on a few fragments of information and ideas that were put forward reluctantly and hesitantly. Moreover, because there is no structure in place to challenge the decision and present other possibilities, the top executive will be accepted as the absolute truth.

This is precisely the scenario we typically encounter in the red teaming operations we provide. The realistic simulations we prepare for them, supported by alternative analysis reports and situation scenarios, demonstrate to them exactly what kind of flaw exists in their effective decision-making. The most common feedback we receive after such an engagement is: “We had never thought of it this way; if we hadn’t taken your recommendation into account, we would be under immense stress regarding 'X' right now.” For this reason, evaluating different perspectives and possessing flexibility is perhaps the most difficult and most critical part of an analysis.

Let's briefly examine the answer to this question, along with both theoretical and practical solutions. But first, I can save you time by giving you a little spoiler:

The solution is just three words: LET THEM TALK.

Now, let's go step-by-step through how to uncover different perspectives and offer our humble advice:

1. Recognize Your Blind Spots

Every individual naturally develops a perspective framed by their own experiences, values, and biases. However, this can prevent you from seeing the big picture of the situation or problem. For example, considering only the financial return on a project might cause you to overlook its environmental or social impacts. Evaluating different perspectives allows you to recognize these blind spots and make more considered decisions.

2. Don't Hesitate to Use Empathy as a Tool

Empathy is not just a human value; it is also a very effective analytical tool. By empathizing, you can try to understand the situation from another person's perspective. This helps you better understand the motivations of your customers, employees, or competitors.

Practical Approach: Before making a decision, ask yourself, "If I were someone affected by this situation, how would I feel?" This simple habit often helps you make more balanced and ethical decisions.

3. The Power of the Team Perspective

Incorporating the views of people from different cultures, fields, or areas of expertise helps you look at situations from a broader perspective. Teamwork allows you to develop more creative and innovative solutions by reducing individual biases.

Practical Approach: Involve individuals from different disciplines in your decision-making process. When creating a project plan, obtain input from marketing, operations, and customer service, in addition to the views of financial experts.

4. Ask Questions Using the "Reverse Perspective" Method

One of the most effective ways to examine a problem from different perspectives is the "reverse perspective" (or "inversion") method. This method involves evaluating the situation or problem from the complete opposite angle. For example, instead of asking, "What are the factors that make this project successful?" asking, "What would cause this project to fail?" can reveal different risks.

Practical Approach: Analyze the potential risks and side effects of a decision by conducting a "worst-case scenario" or "pre-mortem" exercise.

5. Strive to Understand the Perspectives of Competitors and External Factors

Predicting how your competitors or external factors will react to your decisions makes your strategy more robust. For example, before implementing a price reduction, evaluate how your competitors might respond to this situation. Likewise, make long-term decisions by accounting for changes in market conditions.

Practical Approach: Conduct competitor analysis and optimize your strategic decisions based on external factors.

Final Word: YOU NEED DEVIL'S ADVOCATES!

Evaluating different perspectives allows you not only to make more accurate decisions but also to develop more creative and effective strategies. By integrating methods like empathy, teamwork, and "reverse perspective" into your life, you can solve complex problems more easily and make a difference. The most effective structure you can use to do this is to appoint a devil's advocate.

Analytical thinking is more than just an ordinary skill; it is a significant advantage in every field. This skill is not innate. You must work on it and develop those "muscles." The process is long and arduous, but when you see the results, you will realize just how valuable a capability you have developed.

When you encounter complex problems, trying to think like an analyst—adopting the role—offers you an advantage. If your organization does not have an intelligence department (and many companies in Turkey do not), I strongly advise you to establish one. I would remind you that Disney has an intelligence department, and Disney may not even operate in a sector as critical as yours. However, Disney goes beyond just having an intelligence department; it even maintains a counter-intelligence team within its own structure. These teams can bring lasting solutions to your problems and elevate your decision-making process to an effective structure.

If you are postponing plans to establish such a team, at the very least: break down your problems, look at them from different angles, and apply the right analyses to the right questions to determine the correct path forward.