The Fundamental Principles of Analytical Writing

In this article, we will go a step further and focus on the fundamental principles of writing intelligence analysis; that is, from our perspective, the core principles of analytical report writing.

First, we must state that according to the Analysis Training Manual, there are 11 principles of analytical writing. However, within the scope of this article, we will focus on 3 fundamental principles that must never be ignored. This is because, without these principles, it is impossible to write a proper intelligence report or any other analytical text. If you use these three principles correctly and completely, every piece you write will be both more reliable and more functional for the decision-maker.

According to the Analysis Training Manual, clarity means avoiding any writing that has the potential to be misunderstood by the reader. A sentence must have only one meaning and one interpretation. The recipient of the report should not have to expend even the slightest mental effort to understand what you mean.

The first rule you must follow to achieve this is the use of concrete and specific language. Abstract expressions and ambiguous statements are the greatest enemies of your analysis because the reader may interpret them, and in doing so, stray from your intended meaning or misunderstand you partially or completely. The following two sentences will allow you to understand the use of concrete and specific language more clearly.

Weak and Abstract: "The security situation in the region has been worsening recently." (To what extent is it worsening? What period does "recently" cover?)

Strong and Concrete: "Insurgent attacks in the region have increased from a monthly average of 20 to 45 over the last three months, reaching the highest level in the past two years." (This statement reflects a concrete and measurable fact that is not open to debate.)

The second rule you must follow to adhere to the principle of clarity is to cleanse your writing of jargon and abbreviations. You are the expert on the subject you are analyzing, not the decision-maker. You must avoid using technical terms, professional or regional jargon, or organizational acronyms that they cannot understand. If you must use an abbreviation, be sure to state its full name in parentheses the first time it appears in the text. After that, you may use the abbreviation.

The final rule you must observe is to focus on only one idea in each paragraph. The main idea must be clearly stated in the first sentence of the paragraph. The rest of the paragraph must consist of supporting information that proves or details this first sentence. This structure allows the reader to easily follow the logical flow of your argument. In relation to this, one of our instructors during analyst training said: "the decision-maker should understand what you are saying just by reading the first and last sentences of your paragraph; everything in between should be the details."

The other principle you must pay attention to when preparing your writing is brevity. What we mean by brevity here is not just keeping the report short, but being concise. This means every word must serve a purpose, and you must avoid unnecessary words. This way, your reader will understand your messages in a single, quick reading. 

The first thing you can do to fulfill the principle of brevity is to write in the active voice, placing the performer of the action (the subject) at the beginning of the sentence. By doing this, you need fewer words. Furthermore, you convey your message directly through the active voice without beating around the bush. Most importantly, it becomes clear within the paragraph who performed the action, and it does not hide responsibility. Consequently, your writing becomes accountable.

Another point to consider when applying the principle of brevity is the length of your sentences and paragraphs. Your sentences should not exceed an average of 15-20 words. Additionally, you should not include more than one main idea in a single sentence. Your paragraphs should be 5-6 lines at most. This offers visual ease for the reader, allowing them to digest the information you have conveyed more easily.

The final principle we must pay special attention to in our writing is precision. Intelligence, by its nature, is produced amidst uncertainty, with many unknowns and limited information full of gaps. Consequently, the language we use for the decision-maker must honestly reflect the reliability and certainty level of our analytical judgment. When they read your report, clearly understanding what is fact, what is your expert opinion, and how confident you are in that opinion helps them make the right decision.

The first thing we must be careful about regarding precision is the difference between fact and judgment. A fact is objectively provable, non-debatable information. This area generally requires a citation to a source. Just as in academic writing, we also cite open sources, information related to the topic within our own systems, findings, and evidence, and sometimes our past reports, and we indicate these with footnotes or endnotes. A judgment, however, is our expert inference derived from these facts. Furthermore, we must always state our judgments using an active voice.

Another important point we must address regarding precision is the standard use of probabilistic language. When making a forecast, you must consistently use standard words that express the level of uncertainty. This allows the reader to understand how confident you are in your judgment and creates consistency among reports from different analysts. We are sharing the infographic for this standard, referred to as the measure of probability, in the visual below. It is recommended that you avoid vague expressions in your reports such as "Maybe," "it could be," "it seems like," and use this probability measure instead.

Additionally, when using this measure, ensure that you set aside your value judgments and emotional perspectives. An analyst is objective and impartial. Your job as an analyst is not to say whether an event is good or bad, but to objectively assess its likely consequences and offer decision support.

As we conclude this article, we want to remind you once more that the principles of clarity, brevity, and precision mentioned above are rules that must strictly be followed when preparing an intelligence report. If you fail to ensure these, you cannot be considered to have written a correct and effective intelligence report or to have performed analytical writing.